JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the yield on 10-year Treasurys could get to 4 percent this year. Two market watchers aren’t buying that forecast.
Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management says the struggle to 3 percent makes 4 percent a long shot, while Strategic Wealth Partners’ Mark Tepper definitely sees a march north, but calls a 4 percent yield “too high.”
“People have been overestimating inflation and yields forever and continue to do so,” Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday. “It’s highly unlikely to get to 4 percent anytime soon especially because it’s not just us.”
Even if the Federal Reserve goes full throttle on rate hikes this year, global monetary policy should keep a lid on rates, Schlossberg said. With Japanese rates still low and the European Central Bank unlikely to hike soon, foreign capital should continue to flow into 10-year Treasury bonds.
“Any time U.S. rates tick up, the Europeans and the Japanese come in to swoop up because they love to buy U.S. yields,” said Schlossberg. “Unless we see some sort of a buyer strike of U.S. security assets, which means that there’s got to be some sort of a very big geopolitical refusal of U.S. assets, I very much doubt that we’re going to see 4 percent any time soon.”
U.S. rates have been on the rise in recent months as markets price in the chance of tighter monetary policy from the Fed. The 10-year hit 2.94 percent on Feb. 21, its highest level since January 2014. The yield has still not crossed the 3 percent threshold, a level not seen in more than four years.
“Talking about 4 percent is way out of league,” said Schlossberg. “At this point, let’s see whether we can make 3 percent before the end of the year before we even consider 4 percent as a number.”
For Tepper, yields should hold under 4 percent given market expectations for the Fed’s rate hike path this year are too aggressive. He expects a more dovish central bank to emerge as economic growth and inflation remain modest.
“We expect rate hikes to be gradual, and I’m not even sure we’re going to see three hikes this year,” Tepper said on “Trading Nation.” “It’s possible that the Fed only hikes the fed funds rate 50 basis points this year to avoid disrupting the whole growth story that’s going on.”
The markets are pricing in two more 25-basis-point rate hikes this year following the March increase. The hikes could come in June and September, according to CME Group fed funds futures. Two more hikes this year would put the fed funds rate at 2 percent to 2.25 percent.
“Our base case has the 10-year yield closer to 3.5 percent, so we’re definitely firm believers in rising rates, growth, inflationary pressures, but 4 percent just seems way too aggressive for this year,” said Tepper.
A target on 10-year yields at 3.5 percent is roughly 70 basis points higher than current levels. Yields started the year at 2.4 percent.
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