Trump just helped stocks clear a key hurdle, Art Hogan says

Art Hogan sees the new deal to replace NAFTA as ammunition for his bull case.

According to the B. Riley FBR chief market strategist, President Donald Trump helped U.S. stocks clear an important hurdle by resolving the North American trade issue because it makes a China trade deal more likely.

“One of the biggest headwinds … has been trade,” Hogan said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “This is real good news. Get North America right. Don’t escalate with the euro zone. You’ll have a better chance in ’19 to get something done with China.”

Stocks jumped on the trade developments, with the Dow ultimately closing up 192.90 points to 26,651.21. The S&P 500 finished the day in the green, adding about 11 points to close at 2,924. It’s now up more than 9 percent this year. If all goes as planned, Hogan expects the S&P to gain another 2.5 percent before the new year.

“The seasonality and the strong earnings we continue to see in the third quarter — and probably the fourth quarter — are going to help,” he said.

Hogan acknowledges that risks remain, referring to the volatile situation surrounding China-U.S. trade tensions.

“If we have a long drawn out, mutually destructive trade war with China, which nobody wants and nobody is pricing in, that’s going to be a significant drag on the economy,” Hogan said.

For now, he’s erring on the side of optimism. Hogan’s 2019 year-end S&P price target is 3,300 — a 13 percent gain over Monday’s close.