We think investors are likely going to be modestly disappointed by 3Q’s greater than expected deceleration in unit growth, 3Q’s international growth slowdown, and 4Q revenue and OI guidance, which at the midpoint were below Street estimates (4Q revenue guide worse than OI guide). On the plus side, 3Q bright spots included efficiency gains from slower headcount growth along with growing fulfillment and data center efficiencies. These cost efficiencies, in conjunction with high margin AWS and advertising revenue growth, propelled a QoQ 100bps operating margin expansion to 6.6% (and 3Q NA operating income over $1bn above our estimate). This trend only serves to reinforce the notion of Amazon’s thesis creep towards profitability from revenue growth (for more on this topic see here). While the Prime accounting change, lapping of the Whole Foods acquisition, and the Diwali timing shift (+ve) are factors heading into the 4Q, we think the 10-20% 4Q revenue growth guidance (8 points below our outlook at the midpoint, and the lowest 4Q guide since 4Q14) likely weighs on sentiment from here. All-in-all, while we maintain our Outperform rating, we moderate our 4Q18 and 2019/20 revenue growth estimates. As such, we also lower our Target Price to $1,970, from $2,200, implying ~21.5x 2020 EV/EBITDA.
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