Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles voiced confidence in the U.S. economy in a speech Friday and said more interest rate hikes likely will be appropriate, countering the prevailing market wisdom.

Speaking to economists in New York, Quarles, who is the central bank’s vice chair for supervision, said the labor market looks strong and productivity is improving. At the same time, he was largely dismissive of recent data that showed a slowdown in nonfarm payrolls creation and weak consumer spending.

“In regard to policy, I am very comfortable remaining patient at this point and monitoring the incoming data,” he said, echoing the Fed’s most recent policy statement. “That said, my sense is that further increases in the policy rate may be necessary at some point, a stance I believe is consistent with my optimistic view of the economy’s growth potential and momentum. In the language of central banking, my estimate of the neutral policy rate remains somewhat north of where we are now.”

The remarks come nine days after the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold rates steady and indicated that no additional increases are likely this year.

However, in recent days several Fed officials have said that talk about rate cuts is premature. Current market pricing is for the first cut to come as soon as September, with about a 25 percent chance of another decrease before the end of 2019.

The Fed’s policy funds rate is currently set in a range between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent. Quarles’ belief that the “neutral level” that is neither stimulative nor restrictive on growth is significant. When Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in October that the FOMC was “a long way” from neutral, it set off a violent sell-off on Wall Street.

President Donald Trump, who nominated Quarles, has been harsh on the Fed, saying the pattern of rate hikes, including four in 2018, have hampered an otherwise strong economy.

Quarles acknowledged that “growth has slowed, at least temporarily,” as shown in recent data.

“That said, I remain optimistic about the outlook for the U.S. economy, and I think that we have the potential to maintain growth at a healthy pace in the years ahead,” he said.

“Looking past the near-term data, I see many reasons to expect relatively strong growth in the coming years, supported by gains in the productive capacity of the economy,” he added.

The comments were to the Shadow Open Market Committee, a group of economists who monitor Fed activity and gather to recommend policy approaches.

While veering from the notion that the Fed is on indefinite hold, Quarles said the central bank should be data dependent in its decision-making. However, he qualified that by saying that it shouldn’t make decisions based on only isolated metrics.

“I prefer a framework where we make it clear that we are focused on broad trends–elsewhere I have used the aviation analogy that we should not ‘chase the needles’ on the instrument panel. We should be clear that, while we will respond to clear and durable evolution in these broad trends, we are not reacting to every piece of volatile data,” he said.

The only issue was that he wasn’t a “back-slapping cheerleader” and “charismatic guy,” Sonnenfeld said on “Closing Bell.”

“He was a CFO that didn’t know he was put on Earth to be a CEO. He rose to the occasion, like [General Motors CEO] Mary Barra. Sometimes you get insiders that are heroic to take this on.”

“Tim was out there solving problems rather than grandstanding,” he added.

Earlier this month, the Wells Fargo board said Sloan earned a 5 percent raise to $18.4 million for his work in 2018. The bank also issued statements that the CEO had the full confidence of its board when news reports surfaced it was considering a former Goldman Sachs executive for the job.

However, Sloan struggled to satisfy regulators’ demands to overhaul the bank. There were issues across the institution’s earnings line, including its auto lending, mortgage and wealth management operations. Last year, the Federal Reserve capped the bank’s asset growth after Wells Fargo found more problems with customer dealings.

There were also repeated calls from lawmakers, most notably Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., for Sloan to step down. After Sloan’s retirement was announced, Warren tweeted “about damn time.”

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Sonnenfeld said that Warren was attacking the wrong person.

“This was a moment of great shame for Sen. Warren that she helped drive out a great CEO,” he said.

Just hours before the announcement, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett told CNBC he supported Sloan “100 percent.” Berkshire Hathaway is Wells Fargo’s biggest shareholder, with more than 9 percent of shares, according to FactSet.

The first quarter is on track to be the best in nearly 10 years, and the best start to the year for the S&P 500 since 1998. While it’s not likely to repeat those gains, analysts say the second quarter could be good for stocks even with some bumps.

The S&P 500’s 12.3 percent first quarter gain so far is the best for any quarter since the third quarter of 2009, right after the bull market began. According to analytics firm Kensho, the S&P has risen by more than 10 percent in the first quarter just four times since 1990, and in those years, the S&P traded higher for the rest of the year, averaging a gain of 10.3 percent over the remaining quarters.

The small cap Russell 2000, up 13.8 percent, was also in line for its best start of the year since 1991. The Dow’s 10.2 percent gain was its best start for the year since 2013, and the Nasdaq was on track for its best first quarter since 2012.

This year’s first quarter certainly benefited from an oversold bounce back, after the fourth quarter’s dramatic, near 14 percent slump, so some analysts say the second quarter could be higher, but not by nearly as much.

Source: Bespoke

Hurdles for the market are the unresolved U.S.-China trade talks; earnings growth of zero or lower, and a slowing global economy, led by China. Global growth fears have been building over the first quarter amid spotty U.S. economic news, like February’s anemic jobs gains of just 20,000, a tenth of what was expected.

Those fears are part of what has been driving sovereign debt yields lower, unsettling global equity markets. German bund yields returned to negative levels last week, and the U.S. yield curve inverted, a recession warning.

“I think choppiness is expected just because there will be volatility around the numbers and external developments, but that’s not the same as not performing,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “If our base line view of improving economic data and also of some trade deal plays out, along with some better growth out of China, we do expect that to be a help to the equity markets in the second quarter but not at the rate of the first quarter.”

Tilley expects the U.S. and China to reach a trade deal this year, and he blames trade for much of the market weakness in the fourth quarter. The two sides have been negotiating with some slight signs of progress. Many economists believe the second half of the year will see better growth, but the outcome of the trade situation is a key to both the economy’s performance and the market’s.

“Bad days in the trade situation were bad days for the market and the opposite was true, too. These are the world’s two largest economies. If they are able to strike a deal, that takes away the threat, and that’s a positive for markets,” said Tilley. “It’s more likely to happen in the second quarter, but as we’ve seen, the nitty gritty details are challenging.”

Markets have been focusing on the theme of slowing global growth, and for the past week those concerns have been playing out in the bond market, with yields reaching the lows of the year. The U.S. Treasury yield curve also inverted, or short term rates, in this case the 3-month, fell below the 10-year rate, typically a reliable sign that a recession is coming.

At the same time, the markets have written off the Fed and believe after its last meeting it was signaling an even more dovish tone. In response, the futures markets are now pricing in rate cuts for this year and next, and the bond market underwent a massive readjustment with rates falling to more than one year lows. The move in the 2-year note yield, for instance, was the biggest such decline in six days since the financial crisis in 2009.

“All the work that we have ever done on this kind of [stock market] turnaround tells you that there’s a very strong probability that stocks are going to go higher looking out towards year end,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives at BTIG.

Emanuel said he expects to see 3,000 on the S&P 500 by year end, but he says there could still be a correction that could take the S&P as low as 2,600.

“For the time being, we’re in a consolidation phase,” said Emanuel. “German yields slipping below zero tells you the depressed psychology is more entrenched than what you might have been expecting at this point.”

Emanuel said the U.K.’s struggle to find a Brexit plan to leave the European Union could come to a head in the next several weeks, and there’s a chance it could be a negative for stocks if it does not go well. Europe’s economic weakness “is literally one of the two or three largest risk markets to the U.S. market in much the same way that the China weakness flowed into U.S. equities in the fourth quarter of 2018. The European weakness is flowing into our bond market,” he said.

Bespoke data shows that the second quarter historically has been the second worst performing, but in the past 10 years, it has lagged the others, gaining 1.4 percent.

Source: Bespoke

But Bespoke also notes that when the S&P has gained more than 5 percent in a quarter, followed a quarter with a sharp decline of 10 percent or more, like this year’s first quarter, the subsequent quarter was then higher most of the time with an average gain of more than 9.6 percent.

There have been 10 such instances since 1970, and in all but two, the follow up quarter, which in this case would be the second quarter, were all positive.

Another case can be made for a positive second quarter performance when studying the performance of the market after a decline of 10 percent or more. According to Bespoke, before last year’s fourth quarter, there were 19 such quarters since World War II, and a year after those quarters, the S&P was up an average 15.9 percent. The market was also mostly higher two quarters later, for an average gain of 11.3 percent.

Source: Bespoke

The S&P 500 has been testing both sides of 2,800 and ended Thursday at 2,815. Emanuel said the market is not out of the woods yet, after the S&P 500 recently peaked at 2,860.

“We’re for the moment in one of those paradigms where low rates are looked at as a risk factor rather than a tailwind,” he said.

Emanuel said both Brexit and China trade talks could result in a move either way in the market.

“Geopolitical issues, Brext and the trade deal with China, investors have become numb to the constant barrage of news on both fronts because there have not been any developments of substance. It’s all just noisy back and forth,” Emanuel said. “The minute investors see something out of either of those things that they perceive to be substantial developments, markets will react.”

Source: Bespoke

Top executives at TD Bank, Visa and OnDeck are set to discuss the future of finance and partnerships at the Fintech Ideas Festival in San Francisco Thursday. The conversation will be moderated by CNBC’s Deidre Bosa.

TD Bank CEO Bharat Masrani has led the Toronto-based firm since 2014. The bank has partnered with fintech firms like “Amount” to power digital lending. Noah Breslow, CEO of online small business lending company OnDeck will also join the conversation, as well as Visa President Ryan McInerney.

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The U.S. and China have no choice but to conclude ongoing trade negotiations, most likely in the next month or so, former U.S. ambassador to China Max Baucus said Thursday.

“The talks will conclude. They have to,” Baucus told CNBC’s Martin Soong at the Boao Forum for Asia in the Hainan province of China. “U.S, China, we’re so closely joined at the hip economically, we got to get this thing done.”

“There’s some feeling here maybe — by the end of April, maybe a little longer — but we’ll get it done,” Baucus said, noting that otherwise, U.S. stock markets and China’s already slowing economy would be negatively impacted.

President Donald Trump has often compared his political success with the U.S. stock market, which has pushed higher over the last 10 years in the longest bull market in history. Meanwhile, official figures showed China’s economy grew at its slowest pace last year since 1990, and authorities expect the rate to slow further this year.

Check out the companies making headlines after the bell:

Shares of Lululemon surged more than 9 percent in extended trading Wednesday following the release of the retailer’s strong fourth-quarter earnings and positive guidance. Beating on the top and bottom lines, the yoga pants maker reported earnings per share of $1.85 on revenue of $1.167 billion. Wall Street estimated earnings per share of $1.74 on revenue of $1.151 billion, according to Refinitiv.

Lululemon’s same-store sales increased 16 percent, compared to the estimated increase of 16.8 percent. The company also announced a $500 million stock repurchase program.

Shares of PVH soared as much as 11 percent after the clothing company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. PVH reported revenue of $2.48 billion, beating estimates of $2.41 billion. Earnings per share were $1.84, compared to the $1.76 forecast by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.

PVH sees full-year earnings per share between $10.30 and $10.40, better than the Street consensus projection for $10.31 per share.

Five Below shares ticked higher after market close Wednesday after better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings. The company reported earnings per share of $1.59, topping Refinitiv estimates of $1.58 a share. Revenue came in at $602.7 million, higher than the expected $601.5 million.

Five Below said it expects full-year earnings per share between $3 and $3.07, lower than the analyst projection for $3.13 per share.

Shares of Amarin rose more than 4 percent in extended trading after the American Diabetes Association added the biopharmaceutical company’s medication, Vascepa, to its standard-of-care recommendation. The announcement came after a study showed that the drug led to a statistically significant reduction in cardiovascular events.

The “Fast Money” traders shared their first moves for the market open.

Tim Seymour was a buyer of EOG Resources

Brian Kelly was a buyer of the Gold Miners ETF

Steve Grasso was a buyer of McDonald’s

Guy Adami was a buyer of Eli Lilly

Trader disclosure: On March 26, 2019 the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s “Fast Money” were owned by the “Fast Money” traders: Tim Seymour is long AMZN, AAPL, ACBFF, ACRGF, AMZA, ACB, APC, APH, BA, BABA, BAC, BIDU, BX, C, CCJ, CGC, CLF, CMG, CNTTF, CRON, CSCO, CWEB, CURLF, DAL, DIS, DPZ, DVYE, EEM, EUFN, EWM, FB, FDX, FXI, GE, GILD, GM, GOOGL, GTBIF,GTII, GWPH, HAL, HEXO, HK.APH, HVT, HYYDF, INTC, ITHUF, JD, KHRNF, KRO, KSHB, LEAF, LNTH, MAT, MCD, MJNE, MO, MOS, MPEL, MPX, MRMD, NKE, OGI, ORGMF, OTC, PAK, PHM, PYPL, RH, RL, SBUX, SQ, STZ, T, TER, TIF, TGOD, TNYBF, TRSSF, TRST, TWTR, UA, UAL, VALE, VIAB, VOD, X, XRT, YNDX, 700. Tim is on the advisory board of Green Organic Dutchman, Kushco, Dionymed, Tikun Olam, CCTV, and Canndescent. Tim is short IWM, RACE, SPY, TSLA. Tim’s firm is long CGC, HEXO, CRON, APH. Steve Grasso is long stock AAPL, BHC, CAR, EVGN, GE, JCP, LEN, MJNA, OSTK, PFE, RAD, T. Grasso owns Callable Trigger contingent yield note linked to SPX, RTY, and MXEA. Grasso’s kids own EFA, EFG, EWJ, IJR, SPY, TUR. Grasso’s firm is long stock BIIB, CPB, CUBA, DIA, F, GDX, GE, GLD, GOLD, GSK, HPQ, IAU, IBM, ICE, KHC, MSFT, NEM, QCOM, QQQ, SNAP, SNGX, SQQQ, T, URI, WAB, WDR. Brian Kelly is long Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum, GLD, USO. Guy Adami is long CELG, EXAS, GDX, INTC. Guy Adami’s wife, Linda Snow, works at Merck.

The average bonus paid to Wall Street traders dipped by more than $30,000 despite a jump of 11 percent in securities industry profits, according to a report released Tuesday by the comptroller for New York state.

Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s annual estimate of the average bonus paid to security industry employees found that bonuses fell 17 percent last year, from $184,400 in 2017 to $153,700.

The annual accounting by the state comptroller’s office of Wall Street bonuses paid out from December through March serves as an indicator of how the financial services industry is doing. It also gives New York City and state tax collectors an idea of how much to expect from taxes on the billions of dollars in bonuses Wall Street brokerage firms pay employees.

Profits for broker-dealer operations of New York Stock Exchange member firms totaled $27.3 billion in 2018, up from $24.5 billion in 2017, the report said, despite end-of-the-year volatility in the stock markets.

“Profits grew in 2018 and have nearly doubled since 2015,” DiNapoli said. “Bonuses declined in 2018, but the average bonus was still double the average annual salary in the rest of the city’s workforce.”

Last March, DiNapoli reported that profits soared for a second consecutive year in 2017, pushing the average bonus paid in 2018 to $184,400. Last year’s average bonus grew by 18 percent over the previous year partly because of changes in the federal tax code that encouraged Wall Street brokerage firms to move up 2018′s bonus payments to December 2017, DiNapoli said. The tax overhaul took effect in January 2018.

Another factor in a lower average bonus for 2018 was the addition of 4,700 jobs in the city’s securities industry, meaning the bonus pool was shared by a larger number of employees, DiNapoli said. Securities industry jobs topped 181,000 last year, he said.

The report said the average salary, including bonuses, for employees in the city’s securities industry was $422,500 in 2017, the latest year annual data are available. That’s more than five times higher than the average salary in the rest of New York City’s private sector, DiNapoli said.

“It’s great work if you can get it, but there aren’t as many opportunities” on Wall Street as there were before the financial crisis of 2007, when employment in the securities industry approached 190,000 jobs, DiNapoli said.

Check out the companies making headlines after the bell:

Shares of KB Home jumped 2 percent in extended trading Tuesday following the release of the homebuilder’s mixed first-quarter earnings. KB Home posted earnings per share of 31 cents on revenue of $811.5 million. Wall Street estimated earnings per share of 26 cents on $831.8 million, according to Refinitiv.

KB Home’s results come after weak housing data released earlier Tuesday. Developers broke ground for single-family homes at the slowest pace in over 18 months in February.

Bed Bath & Beyond shares continued to move upward in extended trading Tuesday after closing up more than 22 percent on news that three different activist investors plan to replace its entire 12-person board. Legion Partners Asset Management, Macellum Advisors and Ancora Advisors are trying to use their combined 5 percent stake to vote out the other members, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Shares of Boeing sunk as much as 2 percent in extended trading Tuesday on news that a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 Max declared an emergency, turned around and landed back in Orlando, citing engine issues. The FAA said the engine problem was unrelated to the issues that prompted the administration to ground the planes after two deadly crashes.

Shares of JCPenney ticked higher after the market close on Tuesday. The retailer announced Bill Wafford as the new chief financial officer and executive vice president. Wafford, who previously worked for The Vitamin Shoppe, KPMG, and Wallgreens Boots Alliance, is succeeding Michael Fung.

Shares of Ollie’s Bargain Outlet fell more than 3 percent after the retailer posted disappointing profit forecast and fourth-quarter revenue. For fiscal 2019, Ollie’s said it sees adjusted net income per share between $2.10 and $2.15 on net sales between $1.44 billion and $1.45 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had projected full-year earnings of $2.15 per share on $1.45 billion in revenue.

The company reported fourth-quarter earnings of 71 cents per share, 1 cent higher than analysts polled by Refinitiv expected. Revenue was $393.9 million, compared to Refinitiv estimates of $398.3 million.

–CNBC’s Nadine El-Bawab contributed to this report.

Michael Short | Getty Images

Jennifer Bailey, vice president of Apple Pay, speaks during an Apple product launch event at the Steve Jobs Theater at Apple Park on March 25, 2019 in Cupertino, California.

Goldman Sachs research analysts are less than impressed by the bank’s jointly-created credit card with tech giant Apple.

The card, revealed Monday at an elaborate Apple event, is hamstrung by the still-limited reach of Apple Pay, according to analysts led by Rod Hall, a senior equity analyst at the bank. Users will get 2 percent cash back on purchases at merchants who accept Apple Pay, and just 1 percent where Apple Pay isn’t accepted.

“Even though Apple Pay is becoming more available, we would still expect a large percentage of transactions to be done at the 1% return level (using the physical card) so we would expect the typical consumer to perceive the cash return rate to be OK but not great,” the analysts wrote.

Apple Pay, the technology that allows people to use their iPhones to make digital payments, has steadily gained in acceptance since its inception in 2014. Apple CEO Tim Cook said yesterday that it will be accepted at more than 70 percent of U.S. retailers and in 40 countries by yearend.

But it’s still not as ubiquitous as traditional cards that run on the Visa or MasterCard network, some of which offer 2 percent or more in potential rewards. Apple had to create a titanium physical card for situations where Apple Pay isn’t taken.

Part of the issue for Apple is that it’s so massive, it’s hard to move the needle with new products. The Goldman analysts assumed that Apple Card will garner 21 million users who spend $1,000 a month, generating $882 million in revenue. But that’s a less than 1 percent boost to analysts’ consensus earnings for 2020.

As a result, the card will probably have “little short term earnings impact” for Apple, according to the analysts.

— With reporting by Michael Bloom